The report concludes that Russia is conducting a coordinated, state-directed campaign of kinetic sabotage, drone strikes, and airspace incursions across Europe to undermine NATO unity and disrupt support for Ukraine. It argues that European leaders must stop labeling these actions as isolated hybrid provocations and instead recognize them as an active, escalating military campaign. European nations must urgently accelerate defense rearmament and integrate tactical lessons from Ukraine to deter potential Russian conventional incursions on a shorter timeline than the projected 2028–2030 window.

Russia is systematically recruiting ordinary Europeans for low-level sabotage and surveillance through fake job offers on social media and job boards, targeting individuals across socioeconomic backgrounds with financial incentives. The “disposable agent” model exploits greed and reduces operational risk by using locals unlikely to be under existing surveillance. Recent recruitment attempts reached TVP World journalists via SMS and Telegram, mirroring documented patterns across Europe and Poland specifically.

Defense: public awareness and reporting of suspicious recruitment offers.